How many guests will actually come? Estimate it from your own list.
Sort your guest list into three groups and see how many people to expect, a realistic range, and what that means for your per-head costs. No sign-up.
Parents, siblings, the wedding party, friends who would cancel anything.
People who would want to come and have no obvious obstacle.
Far away, young children and no help, or invited mostly out of courtesy.
Adjust the assumptions
The share of each group we expect to say yes. These are starting guesses, not statistics: change them if you know your people.
Food, drink and everything else charged per head.
- Certain39 of 40
97% expected to say yes
- Likely54 of 60
90% expected to say yes
- Unlikely11 of 30
35% expected to say yes
Plan the venue and the budget around 103, but never invite more people than the room holds. Weddings where everyone says yes are exactly the ones where an overfull room hurts most.
Once invitations are out, stop estimating: an online RSVP turns every reply into a real number, and the budget follows the guests who have actually said yes.
Build your invitation with an RSVPBuild it free; you pay for a plan only when you want to publish it.
The starting shares are assumptions, not statistics: nobody publishes a reliable decline rate, and every guest list is different. Change them if you know your people.
Why not just use an average?
Because the average describes other people's guests. A wedding where half the list lives abroad and one where everyone lives in the same town have nothing in common. Your own list, sorted honestly, is the best predictor you have. The method, and the factors that make more people decline, are in how many wedding guests will say no.
How to sort your list
Certain is family and the friends who would cancel anything. Likely is everyone who would want to come and has no obvious obstacle. Unlikely is anyone far away, anyone with young children and no help, and anyone invited mostly out of courtesy. Be honest rather than hopeful; the estimate is only as good as the sorting.
Then stop estimating
Once the invitations are out, the estimate has done its job. An online RSVP turns every reply into a confirmed number, and the guests who have not answered are a list of their own, ready for a reminder. To know when to send everything, use the invitation timeline calculator.
Common questions
How many wedding guests usually decline?
There is no reliable universal figure. Planners often work with a rough 10 to 20 percent for a local wedding and more when guests must travel, but your own list is a better guide: sort it into certain, likely and unlikely guests and estimate each group separately.
How do you estimate your wedding headcount?
Mark every guest as certain, likely or unlikely. Count nearly all of the certain guests, most of the likely ones and a minority of the unlikely ones. The calculator does this with starting shares you can change.
Should you invite more guests to make up for those who decline?
Only up to what the venue can hold and the budget can carry if everyone says yes. Plan around the expected number, but make sure the full list would still fit.
When will I know the real number?
When the RSVP deadline passes, usually three to four weeks before the wedding. With an online RSVP, the confirmed number updates as each reply arrives.